How many guests will turn up, and how to know in advance
How many guests will turn up is the question every caterer asks and almost nobody can answer confidently. The number you invited, the number who replied and the number who sit down to eat are three separate figures, and the gaps between them are predictable enough to plan around once you know where they come from.
RSVPs and guest lists5 min read
The three numbers, and how they relate
Invited, confirmed, and attending. For a Filipino celebration with a local guest list, expect roughly seventy to eighty-five percent of those invited to say yes, and roughly eighty-five to ninety-five percent of firm yeses to arrive. The soft yeses are the volatile part and they behave differently.
| Guest group | Say yes | Then turn up |
|---|---|---|
| Immediate family | Nearly all | Nearly all |
| Close relatives, same city | High | High |
| Relatives from the province | High | Less reliable, travel and weather |
| Friends and barkada | High | Moderate, especially on a weeknight |
| Colleagues | Moderate | The least reliable group |
| Relatives abroad | Low | Whoever said yes usually comes |
The pattern behind the table is distance and obligation. People close to you turn up whatever happens; people at the edge of the list convert badly, and colleagues convert worst of all because nobody in that group will be missed.
The walk-ins nobody counted
Plan for a handful. Filipino guest lists are permeable in one direction: a cousin brings a partner nobody logged, a tita brings the yaya, an uncle brings a friend visiting from abroad. On a list of two hundred, five to ten unlogged arrivals is normal rather than exceptional.
This is worth catering for rather than resenting. The cost of ten extra meals is small; the cost of ten people standing while everyone else eats is a thing your family will mention for years.
- The household plus one
- A guest replies for two and arrives with three because a cousin flew in that week. Very common on province lists.
- The yaya and the driver
- Frequently forgotten in the count and frequently present. Worth deciding in advance whether they are eating.
- The late decline that comes anyway
- Someone who said they could not make it, then reshuffled and did. They will not tell you beforehand.
- The child who was not on the list
- If you did not say clearly that the reception is for adults, assume some children are coming.
The arithmetic to hand your caterer
Take your firm yeses at full value, count soft yeses at about two thirds, ignore non-responders unless they are close family, then add five percent for walk-ins. That number is what you cater. It usually lands close to eighty percent of the people you originally invited.
- 01Count every firm yes with a seat number attached, at full value
- 02Count soft yeses, the sige and we will try answers, at two thirds
- 03Count silent close family at a third, and silent everybody else at zero
- 04Add five percent of the running total for walk-ins
- 05Give the caterer that figure, and keep your confirmed list to hand on the day
Why the seat count matters more than the reply count
A reply tells you a household said yes. A reply with a number tells you how many chairs. Most of the difference between what people planned for and who actually ate comes from households answering for themselves and arriving as families of five.
The things that move the numbers most
Four: the day of the week, the weather that month, the distance from the city, and whether the reception is plated or buffet. A Friday evening in Manila traffic loses more guests than any wording on an invitation ever will, and a June date carries a rain risk worth planning around.
| Factor | Effect on turnout |
|---|---|
| Saturday | The baseline, best attendance |
| Friday evening | Noticeably worse, traffic and work |
| Sunday | Good for family, worse for barkada |
| Weekday | Expect a real drop outside immediate family |
| Rainy season | Province guests and older relatives drop first |
| Over an hour from the city | Day trips become overnight decisions |
None of this is a reason to change your date. It is a reason to be honest with yourself about the number before the caterer needs it, rather than being surprised in the week of the event.
Would you rather hand it over?
How to actually know rather than estimate
Collect seat counts rather than yeses, keep the list somewhere you can sort, and look at who has not answered ten days before your deadline. Estimating is what you do when the replies are scattered across Messenger, Viber and text; a single list turns most of this arithmetic into reading.
This is the practical argument for having the reply on the invitation itself rather than in a form somewhere else. One page, one list, seats confirmed against seats still held, and the names of everyone still to answer.
Every invitation we make comes with a private page that counts it for you and exports the whole list for the caterer, at every price.
Asked about this
What percentage of invited guests actually attend?
For a local Filipino guest list, usually around seventy-five to eighty-five percent of those invited. Immediate family and close relatives turn up almost without exception; colleagues and the outer edge of the list are where the drop-off happens.
How many extra people should I cater for?
About five percent above your calculated number. On a list of two hundred that is ten meals, which covers the cousin who brought a partner, the yaya nobody logged and the guest who said no and came anyway.
Should I count guests who never replied?
Count silent close family at about a third and silent everybody else at zero. Chasing a silent guest into a polite yes they do not honour is the most expensive outcome available, because you pay for the chair and the dinner.
How do I get a headcount my caterer will accept?
Collect seat counts rather than yeses, so one reply for a household says how many chairs. A list of names with numbers against them is something you can hand over; a tally of chat messages is not.
